Utah Rep. John Curtis holds a 34-percentage-point lead over his Democratic opponent, Caroline Gleich, in the race to replace Sen. Mitt Romney, according to a new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll conducted by HarrisX.
In a head-to-head contest, 56% of registered Utah voters said they would support Curtis, a Republican representing Utah’s 3rd Congressional District; 22% said they would cast their ballot for Gleich, the Democratic nominee; and another 22% said they don’t know who they would vote for, the poll found.
When these undecided voters were asked to choose who they would vote for if the election were held today, Curtis’ lead over Gleich increased to 71%-29%. This 40-point advantage remained constant when voters are given the option of voting for Independent American candidate Carlton Bowen.
“We are grateful to see the strong support from Utahns from all over the state,” said Curtis’ chief of staff, Corey Norman. “They know John and his record of getting things done and protecting our Utah values. We look forward to working hard to share John’s message of how he will continue delivering for Utah in the U.S. Senate.”
The poll was conducted from Aug. 2-9 among 800 registered voters in Utah by HarrisX. The margin of error for the sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points.
A unique election
These results track closely with the last few Senate elections in the Beehive State between a Democrat and Republican. In 2018, Romney beat his opponent, Jenny Wilson, 63%-40%. In 2016, Sen. Mike Lee beat the Democratic nominee, Misty Snow, 68%-27%.
Lee’s 2022 reelection bid featured a showdown with independent candidate Evan McMullin that saw the senator win by a narrower margin of 53%-43%. Utah Democrats did not advance a Senate candidate to the general election that year.
“An open U.S. Senate seat is a rare occurrence in Utah which led to a highly competitive primary and a compelling race to watch for the general election,” said Jason Perry, director of the University of Utah’s Hinckley Institute of Politics. “John Curtis continues to be the clear frontrunner, bolstered by his strong name identification and a record of public service that resonates with voters. His approach to addressing Utah’s unique challenges also continues to improve his traction with the electorate.”
In a statement, Gleich said her candidacy has experienced a surge in momentum not represented in the poll. Gleich framed the race as a choice between a regular Utahn concerned about “Utah’s families, our freedom, and our future” and a “career politician.”
”Since entering the race in January, I have been so excited about the groundswell of support we’ve received from Utahns who are looking for a leader who will advocate for an economy that works for everyone, for clean air, and for reproductive freedom,” Gleich said. “While John Curtis presents himself as a moderate, he votes in line with Donald Trump 94% of the time and has an 88% rating from the Heritage Foundation, the authors of Project 2025.”
Curtis won his crowded primary race handily after campaigning on what he called “Utah values.” Up against Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, former Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson and Moxie Pest Control CEO Jason Walton, Curtis came within 1.5% of snagging an outright majority of GOP primary voters.
During the campaign, Curtis sought to differentiate himself from the rest of the pack by leaning on his congressional track record as one of Congress’ most productive and accessible lawmakers. He highlighted achievements in shifting the conversation around energy policy, transferring historic amounts of federal land to Utah, taking a strong position on Chinese aggression and pushing back on budget recommendations from both Democratic and Republican administrations.
Curtis received criticism from fellow primary candidates for beneficial stock trades while in office and for the amount of outside money his candidacy attracted to the race.
Gleich and Curtis on climate issues
During his seven years in Congress, Curtis has spearheaded the founding of the Conservative Climate Caucus, led Republican delegations to the United Nations climate conference, hosted multiple climate summits in the state and championed nuclear energy innovation.
Gleich, an athlete influencer and environmental activist, also promotes a priority on climate, but from a distinctively liberal angle. Over the last decade, Gleich has lobbied congressional lawmakers on “clean energy bills,” including the massive Inflation Reduction Act, and would support “systemic” investments to overhaul the energy grid, public transportation and electric vehicle infrastructure. And unlike Curtis, Gleich supports increased access to abortions and a higher federal minimum wage.
In the three-way race that will appear on Utah voters’ ballots, Curtis has the support of 79% of Republican voters, 12% of Democrats and 40% of independents. Gleich currently receives the endorsement of 73% of Democrats, 6% of Republicans and 26% of independents. Bowen has less than 10% from each group. Around 10% of Republicans and Democrats remain undecided, while nearly 20% of independents are not sure who they will support on Nov. 5.
HarrisX CEO Dritan Nesho said “barring any unforeseen circumstances or surprises” Curtis — and Utah Gov. Spencer Cox, who is running against the Democrat state Rep. Brian King — “are both likely to win.” New Deseret News polling shows Cox with a significant lead over his Democratic opponent.
“At this stage, there’s just not enough undecideds sitting on the fence to prohibit Cox’s reelection to Governor or Curtis’s Senate win,” he said.