Earth will have a close encounter with the asteroid Apophis, also known as the “God of Destruction” on Friday, April 13, 2029. Named after the Egyptian deity of chaos, this massive asteroid will come within 19,000 miles (30,600 kilometres) of our planet, close enough to be visible to the naked eye. However, recent research suggests that a collision with smaller asteroids could potentially alter Apophis’s trajectory, raising concerns about future encounters.
Research on Apophis’s Trajectory
Paul Wiegert, an astronomer at the University of Western Ontario, has investigated the impact of smaller space rocks on Apophis’s path. Wiegert told Space.com, while the chances of such collisions occurring are minimal, there remains a slight risk.
He calculates that the probability of an asteroid deflecting Apophis enough to pose a threat after 2029 is about one in one million, as per the report. The likelihood of an asteroid striking Apophis and causing a direct impact with Earth in 2029 is even lower, approximately one in two billion.
Potential Impact and Future Monitoring
Apophis, which was first discovered in 2004, has been closely monitored due to its potential hazard. Initial assessments placed it high on risk lists, but a close flyby in March 2021 reassured scientists that a collision with Earth is not expected for at least 100 years. However, the recent study highlights that random impacts from smaller asteroids could still pose a future risk.
The asteroid’s possible collision with Earth could have catastrophic consequences. If Apophis were to impact a densely populated area, it could unleash energy equivalent to more than 1,000 megatons of TNT, causing widespread devastation. Fortunately, with current technology and potential future interventions, such as NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), scientists hope to have strategies to deflect or mitigate the threat of Apophis.
Future Prospects
While Apophis’s imminent pass in 2029 is not expected to result in a collision, it presents a valuable opportunity for scientific study and preparedness. As the astronomical community continues to explore ways to protect Earth from potential asteroid impacts, the close approach of Apophis serves as a crucial test of our readiness to handle such threats.