Democrats are returning their ballots faster than Republicans in red and blue counties in Pennsylvania.
Professor Michael McDonald of The Election Lab posted:
In PA Democrats continue to return their mail ballots at a faster rate than Republicans. I’ve added county ballot returns by party reg to show this is not simply that more ballots are returned in Democratic counties.
To be clear…I don’t at all think this means Harris wins PA. We still have a long way to go and it is possible Republicans will return their mail ballots later (this is something they tend to do). Rather, this is a sign of enthusiasm Harris wants to see to be competitive in PA
Professor McDonald was correct. This doesn’t mean Harris is a lock to win Pennsylvania. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 due to decreased Democratic enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton. Donald Trump has yet to demonstrate that he can win an election without replicating that conditions of 2016.
What the mail-in data suggests is that 2024 isn’t going to be another 2016. Voters in the state have remained excited about VP Harris and that is bad news for the ex-president.
Almost all Pennsylvania statewide elections are close, so whoever wins Pennsylvania will probably do it by less than three points. If the mail-in data stays at its current trajectory, it will reflect the idea that Trump isn’t going to get the low turnout from Democrats that he needed in Pennsylvania in order to win, and if that happens, the Keystone State could become an uphill climb for Republicans.
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Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association