The worst thing a studio can do on a massive weekend like this is over-project. And if there’s one thing about Thanksgiving forecasts, they always get over-projected.
Right now, Disney’s Moana 2 is putting up an estimated $54M first day, inclusive of Tuesday’s Walt Disney Animation preview record of $13.8M. This will coast the Dwayne Johnson-Auli’i Cravalho sequel to at least $170M at 4,200 theaters, easily a Thanksgiving 5-day record opening, unseating Disney’s own Frozen ($93.9M), as well as a movie with the biggest haul over the holiday stretch, topping Frozen 2 ($125M). The 3-day for Moana 2 is somewhere around $90M-$100M+.
Let’s just keep a tab on this: The best opening for Johnson at the domestic box office is Furious 7 at $147.1M in 2015.
This is Disney’s fourth blockbuster north of $100M+ domestic under the Alan Bergman team after Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes; Inside Out 2, the highest-grossing movie of the year; and Deadpool & Wolverine, the top-grossing R-rated movie of all time.
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Now, some rivals easily see $200M+ over the Wednesday-Sunday period, and if Moana 2 crosses that threshold, the sequel would squash pervious 5-day opening recordholder The Super Mario Bros. Movie ($204.6M) like a turtle. Keep in mind the first day here for Moana 2 bests the first day of that Illumination/Nintendo title at $31.7M — but that pic didn’t have any previews. Black out Moana 2‘s previews, and the surfer girl is at $40.2M currently.
‘Grease’ is not the word …’Wicked‘ is.
We’re not done yet…
Wicked by Sunday will stand at $236.9M, arguably the best ever stateside for a movie based on a Broadway musical, burying Grease ($190M). The 5-day on Wicked is estimated at $92M. Today is $18.5M, the pic’s highest weekday so far, +11% over Tuesday, which will plow into a $61M second weekend, -46% at 3,888 theaters. The production cost for both parts of Wicked is $320M before P&A.
RELATED: ‘Wicked – Part One’: All The Box Office Records Broken
Paramount Pictures
Paramount’s Gladiator 2 at 3,580 sites is posting another $6.7M today, for a second weekend of $27.3M, -50% and 5-day of $39.4M and a running total of $106.6M for the $250M feature production.
Some are getting their double dose of The Rock this weekend, also heading to Amazon MGM Studios’ Christmas actioner Red One, which is eyeing a $3M Wednesday, $13M third weekend, -1%, $19M 5-day and running total of $76.3M.
Lionsgate’s fourth weekend of The Best Christmas Pageant Ever at 1,832 locations is seeing $950K today, $3.9M over three days (+14%), 5-day $5.7M and running total of $32.8M.
Remember, the biggest Thanksgiving five-day Wednesday-Sunday frame for all titles belongs to 2018, when Ralph Breaks the Internet opened to No. 1, that period amassing $315.6M per Comscore. It’s looking like we could easily eclipse that benchmark.
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