Any evidence that Russia tried to influence an election in a NATO state would expose a form of hybrid attack that is designed to weaken the alliance from within.
So-called “political influence operations”, which can use social media to amplify a particular candidate to boost their chances of success, are deliberately difficult to attribute – with ambiguity an integral part of the weapons system that makes it so hard to defend against.
But allies are trying better to identify attempts, in particular by Russia, to target member states with information campaigns aimed at meddling in elections to assist politicians and political parties that are sceptical of NATO and more favourable towards Vladimir Putin.
It is why events in Romania – where a top court has just annulled the result of the first round of voting in a presidential election amid concerns about an interference operation conducted from overseas – will surely be ringing alarm bells across NATO capitals.
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The first round was won by Calin Georgescu, a relatively unknown far-right candidate who has been accused by critics of being anti-NATO and an admirer of Russia’s president.
But Georgescu told Sky News he “is a patriot and a leader but I am not a fan of Mr Putin”.
His unlikely electoral success was fuelled by a combination of populist, anti-establishment rhetoric and a hugely successful social media campaign, notably on TikTok.
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However, the Romanian authorities then claimed that Russia launched a “hybrid attack” on the country to bolster Georgescu’s chances, amplifying his campaign slogans across social media.
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Intelligence documents were even declassified, suggesting he had benefitted from a mass influence operation – conducted from abroad – to interfere with the result of the vote.
When asked about this by Sky News’s Adam Parsons, Georgescu accused the government of desperation. Yet, the constitutional court of Romania’s decision to step in and cancel the results adds a new level of gravity – and risk – to the crisis.
If Russian interference is proven, it would mean the Kremlin has tried to attack NATO in a significant way under the threshold of conventional war – a move that would surely require some kind of similarly unconventional allied response.
At the same time though, the nulling of votes will doubtless trigger accusations that Romania’s own authorities are damaging the country’s democratic processes themselves.