FRIDAY MIDDAY UPDATE: Deadpool & Wolverine is on its way to the biggest opening for an R-rated movie with a $55M Friday that will put it around $180M, per sources, with plenty of room to grow. Keeping a pulse on walk-up business, particularly during late-night is tricky. All along this summer, Latino and Hispanic audiences have walked-up in bulk, changing the commercial prospects of tentpoles’ fates for the better, and Thursday night as we told you they repped 35% of all D&W ticket buyers.
At $180M, D&W would be the 14th-best domestic opening of all time, pegging ahead of Captain America: Civil War ($179.1M, 2016) and just below Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($181.3M, 2022). Wakanda Forever turned in a first day/previews of $84.2M, while Civil War did $75.5M.
The Box Office Company reports that 43% of the weekend’s showtimes for all movies are for D&W. It believes the pic has a shot at becoming the first R-rated movie to debut to $200M.
Exclaimed one rival studio executive about the success of this weekend for the pic, “This movie is going to defy any comp.”
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UPDATED AFTER EXCLUSIVE: Marvel Studios‘ and Disney’s Deadpool & Wolverine is settling in at a robust $38.5M, still the best R-rated preview we’ve ever seen at the domestic box office, and the eighth-biggest preview of all-time.
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That number out-pegs the preview night of Marvel’s Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness in 2022 ($36M, 3-day of $187.4M), and it’s just under Avengers: Infinity War ($39M), which rallied all the way to $257.6M in 2018.
Out of the gate, on Screen Engine and ComScore’s PostTrak, the movie from director/producer/co-writer Shawn Levy has won over the masses with 5 stars/96% positive and an outstanding 85% definite recommend, which is what tentpoles are made of. Deadpool & Wolverine easily will become his highest opening yet, besting the $54M start of Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian in 2009.
Best grades for the movie came from women under 25 at 100%, but they were the smallest to show up at 10%. Men over 25 were in bulk at 45% (97% grade), followed by women over 25 at 24% (96%) and men under 25 at 21% (91% grade). Male-women turnout was 66%/34%, while under/over 25 was 31%/69%. The 18-34 crowed repped 60% of last night’s draw while over 25 was 69%. Diversity draw was strong Latino and Hispanic at 35% tied with Caucasian at 35%, 15% Black and 11% Asian-American.
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This morning, Quorum tracking reports, the final day-of verdict for Deadpool & Wolverine with “Unaided reached 17%, the best since Barbie (32%) and Oppenheimer (20%). And with 70% interest, it is only the second film after Spider-Man: No Way Home to reach that level.” Quorum’s projection for the weekend: $190M-$219M. Still even if D&W comes in at $170M, that’s something to behold still….the best of the year, and the best since Barbie a year ago.
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In other box office news, Universal/Warner Bros/Amblin’s Twisters ends the week with $119.6M after a $6.5M Thursday, -35%. The Lee Isaac Chung directed movie is expected to ease -55% against D&W.
EXCLUSIVE: Moments before Deadpool & Wolverine stars Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman, filmmaker Shawn Levy and Marvel Studios boss Kevin Feige take stage at Comic-Con’s Hall H, we can tell you first per myriad box office sources that the movie is headed to a record preview night for an R-rated pic. It is eyeing $35M at this minute but very well could wind up north of $40M+ by morning — which wouldn’t be shocking as bawdy movies play late into the night.
Anything north of $31M would make Deadpool & Wolverine one of the top nine preview nights ever. The badass duo already have trampled on the previous R-rated preview record, held by Deadpool 2 with $18.6M in 2018. That movie filed a $53M Friday, of which Thursday previews repped 35% for a 3-day of $125.5M. As we told you, the first Deadpool owns the R-rated 3-day record at $132.4M. That pic did $12.7M in previews, 27% of its first Friday’s $47.3M.
The weekend and the world is Deadpool & Wolverine‘s oyster with 81% certified fresh reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and a stellar 97% audience rating. Read Deadline’s review here, and watch the pic’s latest trailer below.
How high does Deadpool & Wolverine go? Everyone keeps handicapping that it won’t have the momentum of a PG-13 film. It’s uncharted territory, for sure. Note that Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness posted $36M in previews in 2022, which got it to a $187.4M 3-day, while Avengers: Infinity War did $39M in previews and turned in a 3-day of $257.6M in 2018.
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Word is that those fans getting a seat in Hall H will get to see the Levy-directed, -produced and -written Deadpool & Wolverine for free.
Be sure to watch Natalie Sitek’s coverage of the Deadpool & Wolverine panel tonight on @Deadline X.